Ebola Finally on the Run: Number of New cases remain low

The  total number of new cases of the Ebola virus  disease has remained 3 cases per week for two consecutive weeks. (The WHO updated the figure for the week to the 2nd August from 2 to 3).

In the week to the 9th of August there were 2 cases of EVD in Guinea and 1 in Sierra Leone. [WHO]

There have been less than 10 new cases per week for 3 consecutive weeks, for the first time in more than a year.

Although the risk for further transmission still exists; the WHO has said.

Guinea

One of the two cases is a registered contact, who was lost to follow up and generated quite a good number of high risk contacts in several health facilities in Conarky Guinea while symptomatic before being detected to be EVD positive. Many of the high risk contacts are supposedly health workers. 

The second case from Guinea was only detected after a post mortem test and has been linked to an unsafe burial in Moussayah, Forecariah Guinea. This is a pointer to the high likelihood of undetected transmission in the said area.

Sierra Leone

The case from Sierra Leone was from the capital (Freetown) and was said to have also generated some high risk contacts.

The case; an 8 month-old female whose symptoms began on 4th August, and was admitted into Ola During Children’s Hospital in Freetown on 6th August with fever, vomiting, and diarrhea.

29 high-risk contacts have been identified so far, 24 of whom are currently in voluntary quarantine.

Follow up cases in Guinea and Sierra Leone

Currently there are more than 1600 contacts under observation in nothing less than 4 prefectures in Guinea and 2 districts in Sierra Leone. 

This is an improvement when compared to more than 1800 contacts in 5 prefectures and 4 districts in the previous week.

927 of the contacts are in 4 western prefectures in Guinea, with over 55% of them being in Forecariah, and  40%  in Conakry. In the previous week, 1080 contacts were being followed up in Guinea alone.

In Sierra Leone however, 694 contacts are being followed up currently, this is an improvement when compared with the 811 of the previous week. 

Most of the said contacts; 638, are associated with the Tonkolili case of the week that ended on July 26. 

While the remaining 56 are in the Sierra Leone capital; Free Town.

Liberia

There were no new cases  from Liberia in the week to 9th August. All contacts in Liberia have also completed their 21-day follow-up period. 

The last two patients with EVD in Liberia were discharged after completing treatment and testing negative for EVD for a second time on the 23rd of July 2015.

There have been no health worker infections for the second week in a row in Guinea and Sierra Leone.

Margaret Chan of the World Health Organization in a statement to the United Nations Security Council yesterday said that:

"If the current intensity of case detection and contact tracing is sustained, the virus could be soundly defeated by the end of this year," 


"That means getting to zero and staying at zero," she said during a special meeting on the disease.

She further more warned against a false sense of security, owing to the fact that a single undetected case could lead to a major flare of the disease.

Joanne Liu of the MSF in a statement earlier this month warned that the outbreak is not over.

Ebola may have faded from the headlines, she said; but it hasn’t gone away. 
She called on all stake holders – both national and international to channel all their energies into keeping up the momentum. She also hinted that the accelerated use of the new vaccine in the affected countries, can help break chains of transmission and protect front line workers.